“It’s Culture and Race, Stupid!”

To paraphrase Carville, “It’s culture/race, stupid!”  This article, drawing from an astute anonymous Tweet, shows that swing-state voters who prioritized the economy (the largest concern among voters) voted for Clinton. She also won “foreign policy” voters. But Trump dominated among voters focused on terrorism and immigration. These patterns holds in the Rust Belt. This article bolsters the case that Trump won thanks to cultural/racial/nationalist issues, and by how similar anxieties were framed and perceived differently. I note that Clinton’s margin on economics was still too small (51-43?). And I’m worried that Trump is inheriting Obama’s strong economy and will either destroy it and/or take credit for it — so he might close the gap with economic voters while holding on to his xenophobic voters. If Trump keeps getting extorted by companies threatening to move, we’ll have a triple-whammy of corporate welfare, increasing interest rates, and Trump getting credit for short-term and short-sighted job protection.

Author: Jed Shugerman

Legal historian at Fordham Law School, teaching Torts, Administrative Law, and Constitutional History. JD/PhD in History, Yale. Red Sox and Celtics fan, youth soccer coach. Author of "The People's Courts: Pursuing Judicial Independence in America" (2012) on the rise of judicial elections in America. I filed an amicus brief in the Emoluments litigation against Trump along with a great team of historians. I'm working on "The Rise of the Prosecutor Politicians," a history of prosecutors and American politics, and another project on the origins of independent agencies in America.

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