2020 Election Predictions

Biden 369-Trump 169:

By the way, this is no wildly optimistic fantasy. I’m assuming the polls are right, and underestimated minority Election Day turnout, which offsets the problems of mail delays and rejecting absentee ballots. But the mail and the absentee process are still problems.

Senate: Dems flip CO, AZ, ME, NC, IA, and 2 surprises: MT and GA (Ossoff wins 50%, no run-off). Lose AL. +6 = 53-46 Dem Senate. GA Special will be a run-off.

House: Dems gain for 243-192 majority: flip NJ2, NC2, NC6, AZ6, MN1, TX23, TX24, PA10, OH1, GA7, IN5.

Gov: One flip: Dems lose Montana.

Author: Jed Shugerman

Legal historian at Fordham Law School, teaching Torts, Administrative Law, and Constitutional History. JD/PhD in History, Yale. Red Sox and Celtics fan, youth soccer coach. Author of "The People's Courts: Pursuing Judicial Independence in America" (2012) on the rise of judicial elections in America. I filed an amicus brief in the Emoluments litigation against Trump along with a great team of historians. I'm working on "The Rise of the Prosecutor Politicians," a history of prosecutors and political ambition (a cause of mass incarceration), and "The Imaginary Unitary Executive," on the myths and history of presidential power in America.

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