Biden in good shape: Where things stand, Wed 8 am

  1. Biden will win NV and AZ. (Update: Arizona has gotten messy with a tabulation error and confusion about the party registration balance of late-arriving mailed ballots).
  2. Then he needs just 2 of the following 4, and there is a rough consensus that he is likely to win all 4 by close margins:
    GA, MI, WI, and PA
    The numbers already look good, given what seems left to count. We should know more by the end of the day. For example, see this helpful projection of PA here: https://twitter.com/monicadrake/status/1323970032737656832?s=21
  3. Trump has no legal basis to stop any of these counts of ballots that arrived on time according to pre-established state law. The Pennsylvania Supreme Court mail extension for ballots mailed on time but arriving late is the only exception, and that suit could become moot by the other states or by the count of PA’s more timely ballots. And the US Supreme Court already rejected that claim 4-4. If Amy Coney Barrett reverses that decision after the election, it will be a major problem for voters’ reliance on the first decision, and if somehow that gives Trump the election, it would be a disaster for the rule of law and the legitimacy of the courts in America.
  4. Senate: less likely. The Democrats need 2 more pick-ups, relying on absentee votes in Maine and then a Georgia run-off. North Carolina looks too far back.

Author: Jed Shugerman

Legal historian at Fordham Law School, teaching Torts, Administrative Law, and Constitutional History. JD/PhD in History, Yale. Red Sox and Celtics fan, youth soccer coach. Author of "The People's Courts: Pursuing Judicial Independence in America" (2012) on the rise of judicial elections in America. I filed an amicus brief in the Emoluments litigation against Trump along with a great team of historians. I'm working on "The Rise of the Prosecutor Politicians," a history of prosecutors and political ambition (a cause of mass incarceration), and "The Imaginary Unitary Executive," on the myths and history of presidential power in America.

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