Thurs AM update: Pennsylvania looking solid, the tipping point state to 273

All signs point to Biden winning the Philadelphia absentee ballots by a lot over the next 24 hours, and winning Pennsylvania by at least 100,000 votes. And that gets Biden to 273 electoral votes without any other undeclared states NV, AZ, GA or NC.

See below. Trump is up by 130,000, but there are about 600,000 absentee ballots left, mostly from urban areas, and Biden is winning them overall 80% to 20%:

By a cautious estimate, Biden will net over Trump at least 200,000 votes, and will win Pennsylvania by about 100,000 votes by Friday.

There is no legal basis to stop this count, and the margin will be too big for any recount to make a slight bit of difference, or to need to count pre-election postmarked/late arriving ballots under the legally vulnerable state Supreme Court extension.

So this is the winning map: PA gets Biden to 273 without AZ, NV or GA:

Author: Jed Shugerman

Legal historian at Fordham Law School, teaching Torts, Administrative Law, and Constitutional History. JD/PhD in History, Yale. Red Sox and Celtics fan, youth soccer coach. Author of "The People's Courts: Pursuing Judicial Independence in America" (2012) on the rise of judicial elections in America. I filed an amicus brief in the Emoluments litigation against Trump along with a great team of historians. I'm working on "The Rise of the Prosecutor Politicians," a history of prosecutors and political ambition (a cause of mass incarceration), and "The Imaginary Unitary Executive," on the myths and history of presidential power in America.

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