Friday 9 AM update: PA margin means it’s over. Don’t worry about Military/Overseas votes or Recounts

1. Pennsylvania is starting to get called officially for Biden by decision desks. That’s 273 electoral votes w/o GA or AZ. And still on track for Biden to win by well over 50,000, beyond any plausible recount or overseas/military ballot(which is relatively 50/50 see below)

And keep in mind that Obama and Clinton kept adding millions to national popular vote over the following weeks. Biden’s national margin will be around 7-8 million, bigger than Obama over Romney 2012.

2. Lots of people asking about 10,000 overseas and military. GA Military is more mixed vote this year. A. It’s not Iowa military. More Black servicemen (who are more Republican than Black men generally, but the military vote won’t be red enough to catch up. B. August polling of military showed major shift against Trump (see Military Times poll below). C. Overseas non-military is Democratic. D. There is even more blue Atlanta and Savannah coming in today. The margin will be big enough today. Overseas gets counted next week, too little too late.

3. AZ probably stays Biden. The trend towards Trump slowed down in the last batches. Too little too late.

4. Too many states have a margin too big for a recount to have any reasonable chance.

Likely 306 Electoral Votes.

From Military Times Aug 31: “In the latest results — based on 1,018 active-duty troops surveyed in late July and early August — nearly half of respondents (49.9 percent) had an unfavorable view of the president, compared to about 38 percent who had a favorable view. Questions in the poll had a margin of error of up to 2 percent. Among all survey participants, 42 percent said they “strongly” disapprove of Trump’s time in office.” 

Author: Jed Shugerman

Legal historian at Fordham Law School, teaching Torts, Administrative Law, and Constitutional History. JD/PhD in History, Yale. Red Sox and Celtics fan, youth soccer coach. Author of "The People's Courts: Pursuing Judicial Independence in America" (2012) on the rise of judicial elections in America. I filed an amicus brief in the Emoluments litigation against Trump along with a great team of historians. I'm working on "The Rise of the Prosecutor Politicians," a history of prosecutors and political ambition (a cause of mass incarceration), and "The Imaginary Unitary Executive," on the myths and history of presidential power in America.

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