Don’t cancel the third debate. The nation needs it.

First, polling news: I saw the tight ABC poll first (Clinton 47-43) and I was sad. Now the NBC poll shows double-digit lead (Clinton 48-37), and now I’m happy. Lesson: I need to stop overreacting to each individual poll.
 
I’ve seen too many calls, including the Boston Globe’s, to cancel the third debate. The nation needs the third debate now more than ever, and not because she needs to pile on. She needs to go even higher when Trump goes lower. Clinton needs to use this opportunity to look at the camera directly, address the nation about the need for unity and her commitment to represent everyone and serve everyone. Trump is building an explosive bomb. This is Clinton’s moment to calmly and respectfully defuse that bomb with a closing argument, a positive message and an appeal for legitimacy and peace. But she needs to be careful in not overreacting.
 
Here is one point I might suggest for her:
Clinton needs to remind voters of the 2000 election, when some accused Florida officials of rigging the election. Point 1: The Supreme Court gave the election to Bush in a questionable ruling, but immediately Al Gore conceded, and the country was better off. “Al Gore was a patriot and an honorable man,” or some such tribute. By only implication, Trump’s delegitimizing of the election is not patriotic and not hororable. Point 2: Every vote counts, a reminder of the damage in voting for third parties.

The storm is coming.

This is one of the things keeping me up at night, and it is starting now. The explosive mix of white nationalism, male aggression, the propaganda of global conspiracy, the rhetoric of revolution, Trump’s embrace of violence, and insane gun culture. Is it a coincidence that they are menacing a female candidate’s office? There is going to be violence, and blood will be on Trump’s hands. But the GOP leadership has aided and abetted this coming storm with their secessionist obstruction and their continuing support for Trump’s increasingly destructive campaign. There is time for the GOP to find a conscience and head off this storm, but we might be past that point by now.

http://talkingpointsmemo.com/livewire/trump-supporter-armed-protest-dem

Some good news: the tide turning on the death penalty

The Florida Supreme Court overturned a state statute that allowed a jury to impose a death sentence by a 10-2 vote.  In order to impose the death penalty, the Court ruled that a jury most be unanimous. It may not be an obviously major decision, but these jury voting rules are enormously important, especially with how we know prosecutors abuse peremptory strikes to keep minorities off the jury.  If the rules on such peremptory-strike abuses are so hard to enforce, (or just as accurately, if courts are unwilling to enforce those rules), then this unanimity rule is at least a back-up check on prosecutors.

http://www.floridasupremecourt.org/decisions/2016/sc12-1947.pdf

Canvas in New Hampshire or a Swing+Senate State Near You!

A great remedy for election anxiety and fear: Canvassing!
Z (12 yrs old) and I went to New Hampshire on Monday, and the Nashua office was wonderfully organized and clear. (WBUR’s poll today shows Clinton with a disturbingly slim 3 point lead). Our ride was just 40 minutes from the Boston suburbs, and it was a stunning ride through spectacular fall foliage. The day was a great way to bond with a kid who is just starting to engage with politics (Z was the most enthusiastic Bernie supporter in our house). Our three hours of canvassing was just about perfect for a 12-year-old (honestly, he was engaged and energetic for 2 hours, and then started to get bored during the 3d hour, but I think boredom isn’t such a disaster for kids). I found it helpful bringing along such a cute, friendly kid to make the homeowners comfortable and to start a conversation about basic human decency. We arrived at the Nashua campaign office, and they had folders organized for a 3-hour canvas visit to 40 homes. The field organizers did not send us to any solid Trump supporters or solid Democrats. They put together a clear list from canvassing information from past elections plus a list of “Unaffiliated” (registered independents), and they mapped out the list for efficient navigation. We had conversations with about a dozen people. All but one had moved from undecided to Clinton. The exception was someone who shifted from Trump back to undecided after the NBC tape and the last debate. But many of them hadn’t thought much about the CRUCIAL Senate race that will probably decide which party controls the Senate. Talking up Maggie Hassan over Kelly Ayotte was the most important contribution of our canvassing. We talked about the open Supreme Court seat and the importance of overturning Citizens United. We talked about how Maggie Hassan was a very successful governor who kept taxes low on the middle class and working class, and also focused on the state’s opioid crisis. And we mentioned that Kelly Ayotte just answered in a debate that she thought Trump was “absolutely a good role model.” Those messages seemed to connect.
There are lots of states that will decide both the Presidency and the Senate: Pennsylvania, Ohio, Wisconsin, North Carolina, Nevada, and Florida. Let’s go!!!

https://www.hillaryclinton.com/states/new-hampshire/

 

Here we go again… Shugerblog!

Back in 2004, I started a blog, Shugerblog, to post about three big things happening that spring: 1) the campaign to defeat George W. Bush, 2) the campaign to Reverse the Curse (Red Sox!), and 3) the birth of our 2d child.  We were two for three: we had a healthy baby who continues to amaze and inspire us, the Sox overcame an 0-3 hole vs. the Yankees and broke the curse, but Bush won.  I offered some prescient predictions (the collapse of Howard Dean going into Iowa), a Sox comeback over the Yankees (absurdly wishful thinking that came true), and I had some clunkers (Kerry would defeat Bush). Then reality set in: being on the academic job market with two kids under three years of age. And later, I got the message at my new teaching job that blogging while being an untenured professor is a bad idea. So I even stayed off of Facebook for eight years to avoid distraction and controversy.

Well, I decided to address my election-induced insomnia and anxiety by restarting the blog. And frankly, I have tenure at a law school I LOVE after quite a bumpy ride along the way. Maybe this blog is an awesome idea. Maybe this is a terrible idea. Stay tuned!